Strategy of the Week


For information on other commodities please
refer to our current issue of the  Newsletter.
 

03 Sep 2010


Range-bound trading as we enter crucial September

The wheat market continued to consolidate and trade within the recent range over the past week. Dec?10 futures again found support at the 680USc/bu level and resistance at 730USc/bu. After another mid-week sell off the market is looking to test support again. The rally last week was largely brought about by strong export sales data across the grain pits and ongoing concern surrounding Russian wheat supply, heightened by the USDA attach? publishing a wheat production estimate of 41mmt vs the USDA?s last WASDE report of 45mmt. The rally was short-lived and died on a lack of consumer buying. There has been some improvement in the weather forecast for Argentina and parts of Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. Although WA received some rain across the northern wheat belt early this week, it was not general and with the forecast pretty dry for the coming week, the WA story could add a bit of fuel to the global wheat story in the coming weeks. September is a critical month for the world markets; it is a month that often sees macro weakness and a month that has plenty of weather permutations to consider. Spring in Australia and Argentina kicks in and the heat days become a big focus, pre-winter planting in the northern hemisphere hits a climax and frost impacts on US and Canadian soybean, corn and canola crops. Add to this the local political uncertainty ($A impacts) and we can expect the market uncertainty to remain and volatility to continue.